Brunswick, Ohio 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

794
FXUS61 KCLE 310839
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
439 AM EDT Sat May 31 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will continue east across the area this morning.
High pressure will build into the region starting tonight and
will persist through Tuesday. A warm front will move through the
back side of the high on Tuesday, followed by a low pressure
system on Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A cold front continues across the forecast area this morning and
some showers will be in and out of the eastern third of the
forecast area through daybreak. Some light showers/drizzle
could remain in far NE OH and NW PA today with cold advection
off Lake Erie as an upper trough advances south over the
Northeast CONUS. Otherwise, today will be a cool late May day
with cold advection in west to northwest flow and some clouds
across the region, which will keep temperatures down with a mix
of 50s and 60s. The upper trough will nudge to the east tonight
into Sunday and high pressure will build from the west, which
will allow for clearing conditions. Temperatures tonight will be
fairly cool with the clearing conditions and expect most of the
area to drop into the 40s. For Sunday, clear conditions and
backing flow should allow for temperatures to get a slight bump
up into the 60s and 70s, still on the cooler side of normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather is expected through this period as a ridge impacts our
region and is accompanied by stabilizing subsidence. In addition,
mainly clear to partly cloudy sky is forecast. At the surface, the
ridge axis should shift from the western Great Lakes and Mid OH
Valley to New England and Atlantic waters east of Cape Hatteras
between sunset Sunday evening and daybreak Wednesday morning.
Simultaneously, the ridge axis aloft should move E`ward from near
the northern and central Great Plains toward the NY/New England
border and Delmarva Peninsula. Thus, net low-level WAA at the
surface and aloft is expected to impact our region. After lows
mainly in the lower 40`s to lower 50`s around daybreak Monday, late
afternoon highs should reach the upper 60`s to lower 70`s in NW PA
and the lower 70`s to lower 80`s in northern OH. The warmest highs
are forecast in NW OH. Milder lows in the lower 50`s to lower 60`s
are expected around daybreak Tuesday and should be followed by late
afternoon highs reaching mainly the 80`s in northern OH and NW PA.
Even milder lows in the lower 60`s to 70F are expected around
daybreak Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SW`erly to WSW`erly flow aloft and embedded shortwave disturbances
are expected to impact our CWA Wednesday through Friday as the
aforementioned ridge at the surface and aloft exits E`ward.
Simultaneously, a primary trough axis aloft should approach from the
northern Rockies and eventually the western Great Lakes. At the
surface, the trough overspreads our region from the west and the
attendant cold front should sweep SE`ward across our region on
Friday. Periodic showers and thunderstorms are expected Wednesday
afternoon through Friday due to the release of weak to moderate
instability, including elevated CAPE, by the following: a low-level
return flow of warm/moist air from the Gulf and southern Gulf Stream
undergoing moist isentropic ascent aloft; convergence/moist ascent
along pre-cold front surface trough axes accompanying the
aforementioned shortwave disturbances; convergence/moist ascent
along the surface portion and upper-reaches of the cold front. The
low-level return flow of warm/moist air from the Gulf and southern
Gulf Stream will be associated with unusually-high PWAT`s, which
will contribute to showers and thunderstorms capable of producing
periods of torrential rainfall. Flash flooding may become a concern,
especially on Friday, when SW`erly mean mid-level flow of about 30
to 50 knots should exhibit a large component parallel to the cold
front and promote the development of training, yet progressive
showers/storms. Moderate deep-layer bulk shear may contribute to
strong to severe thunderstorm concerns, especially on Thursday and
Friday, and if moderate destabilization of the warm/moist sector
boundary layer via daytime heating manages to occur.

A slight cooling trend is expected on Wednesday through Friday due
in part to an increase in cloud cover, especially Wednesday night
through Friday, and the low-level CAA regime that will follow
Friday`s expected cold front passage. Periodic sunshine and
continued low-level WAA are expected to allow late afternoon highs
to reach mainly the 80`s on Wednesday and mainly the mid 70`s to
lower 80`s on Thursday. On Friday, daytime highs should reach the
70`s prior to the cold front passage. Daily lows are expected to
reach the 60`s to lower 70`s around daybreak Thursday and the 60`s
around daybreak Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
A cold front divides the airspace early this morning with a
final round of showers moving through the eastern half of the
area. Conditions are currently VFR across the board with any
MVFR occurring briefly in showers. Winds ahead of the front are
southwest to west with wind behind the front west to northwest.
The cold front will clear the area later this morning and winds
should shift entirely to the west then northwest for all and
gusts over 20 kts will be expected during the daytime hours. The
main operational impact will be a batch of MVFR ceilings that
are surging southeast over the Lake Huron region and will impact
the local airspace later this morning. The impacts to NW Ohio
are more conditional at this time with MVFR likely staying east.
Otherwise, MVFR and perhaps some isolated IFR will enter the
region later this morning and persist for a bit through the
afternoon hours. Drier air will enter the region by this evening
and scour out the lower clouds with decreasing winds, as well.
Conditions will then pop to VFR as high pressure enters the
region and ceilings completely erode.

Outlook...VFR is expected through Tuesday. Non-VFR may return
on Wednesday in scattered showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 1 PM EDT today west of
The Islands. East of The Islands, the Small Craft Advisory remains
in effect from 6 AM to 11 PM today. A Beach Hazards Statement for a
high risk of rip currents remains in effect from 6 AM to 11 PM today
along the lakeshore from Erie County, OH to Erie County, PA.

A trough lingers over Lake Erie through Sunday and should begin to
weaken slowly this afternoon. NW`erly winds freshen to 15 to 25
knots through about midday and then ease to around 10 to 15 knots by
sunset this evening. The strongest winds are expected over the
central basin. Accordingly, waves are expected to be as large as 4
feet west of The Islands and build to as large as 3 to 7 feet east
of The Islands through this early afternoon. Thereafter, waves are
expected to subside to 3 feet or less in most of Lake Erie by sunset
this evening, but in the central basin, waves should subside to 3 to
5 feet by sunset. NW`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots tonight will
allow waves to subside to 3 feet or less basin-wide by late this
evening. SW`erly to NW`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots or so are
expected on Sunday and will primarily generate waves of 3 feet or
less. However, occasional 4 footers may develop south of Long Point,
ON and in the eastern basin due to greater fetch.

A ridge is expected to affect Lake Erie Sunday night through
Wednesday as the ridge axis moves from the western Great Lakes
toward the Gulf of Maine. However, on Wednesday, another trough
should attempt to overspread Lake Erie from the west as a slow-
moving cold front approaches from the western Great Lakes and
vicinity. SW`erly to W`erly winds around 5 to 15 knots Sunday night
become S`erly to SW`erly on Monday through this Wednesday. Waves
should trend 3 feet or less.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for OHZ009>012-089.
PA...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for PAZ001.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for LEZ142-
     143.
     Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this
     evening for LEZ144>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic
NEAR TERM...Sefcovic
SHORT TERM...Jaszka
LONG TERM...Jaszka
AVIATION...Sefcovic
MARINE...Jaszka